Overview - ISO 16698:2019 (Geomagnetic activity prediction)
ISO 16698:2019, "Space environment (natural and artificial) - Methods for estimation of future geomagnetic activity", specifies standardized methods to estimate future geomagnetic indices and geomagnetic activity for time intervals from hours to years. The standard defines classification of prediction time scales (short-, middle- and long-term), describes common geomagnetic indices (K, Kp, Dst, aa, ap, AE, etc.), and provides guidance on prediction methods, evaluation of prediction efficiency, reporting, documentation and archiving for space environment and space weather applications.
Key topics and technical requirements
- Prediction time scales
- Short-term: ~1 hour to a few days
- Middle-term: a few weeks to a few months
- Long-term: months to years (up to a solar cycle)
- Geomagnetic indices covered
- Local and planetary indices: K index, Kp, ΣKp, ap, Ap
- Storm and disturbance indices: Dst, aa
- Mid-latitude and auroral indices: ASY, SYM, AU, AL, AE, AO
- Additional indices: am, PC
- Prediction methods
- Statistical models and filters (linear and non-linear)
- Machine learning approaches
- Probabilistic prediction frameworks
- Physics-based (magnetohydrodynamic) modelling
- Evaluation and compliance
- Definition of prediction error and skill scores (informative annex on skill scores)
- Methods for validation, reporting, documenting and archiving predictions
- Guidance on time lag, temporal resolution and data sources
- Informative resources
- Annexes list websites for real-time indices, space weather forecasts, and academic references
Practical applications and intended users
ISO 16698:2019 is geared to professionals and organizations that require reliable geomagnetic forecasts as input to space system design, operations and analysis:
- Satellite and spacecraft designers (orbital lifetime and drag models)
- Mission operations and constellation managers (operational planning)
- Space weather forecast centres and researchers (nowcasting and modeling)
- Aerospace engineers performing worst-case electrostatic charging or radiation assessments
- Developers of upper atmosphere, ionosphere and plasmasphere models (inputs for ISO 14222, ISO 16457, ISO 22009)
- National standards bodies, regulators and system integrators
Related standards
ISO 16698:2019 helps standardize how geomagnetic indices and space environment forecasts are produced, validated and reported - improving interoperability between space weather services, satellite operators and environmental modelers.